Fire SlimesTier 2
at GOAT RDO Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghastly Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Limitless Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magnificent Banquet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |