Fire SuitedTier 1
at GOAT RDO Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
8-2-1
overall winrate
77.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
73.1%
avg ELO +10.1 per match
expected value
58.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1348
· median 1348
· range 1267–1430
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1150
Q3 1383
1492
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 71.1% | +13.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
