Water FractalTier 1
at GOAT RDO Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.1% | +4.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Divining Streams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alice, Golden Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |