Water AlliesTier 1
at GOAT RDO Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-2-4
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1159–1392
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1150
Q3 1383
1492
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
