Fire AggroTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tristan | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Elysian Astrolabe | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embersong | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Erupting Rhapsody | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |