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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

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decks
8 (10.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
29 9-16-4
overall winrate
37.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8% avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
45.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1263 · median 1252 · range 1191–1350 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1198 Q3 1383 1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 14.7% 0
Wind Allies 9.3% 3 0-1-2 33.3% 42.9% 48.9% -0.9
Fire Aggro 8.0% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.1% +0.0
Fire Crux Mage 6.7% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 48.1% -1.4
Water Ravishing Mill 6.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.8% -1.9
Fire Slimes 5.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 51.3% +1.2
Fire Arcane 4.0% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 48.7% -1.0
Water Allies 4.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 48.5% -1.4
Wind Crux Lorraine 4.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.3% +2.1
Fire Erupting 2.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.6% +0.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.7% 0
Wind Neos 2.7% 0
Wind Overlord 2.7% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 49.1% -0.9
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.7% +1.1
Fire Neos 1.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.8% +1.2
Fire Neos Tonoris 1.3% 0
Fire Umbra Diana 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.8% -1.9
Water Arcane 1.3% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.8% +1.3
Water Diana 1.3% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.4% -1.0
Water Neos 1.3% 0
Water Tristan 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.2% -1.3
Water Umbra Diana 1.3% 0
Wind Lorraine 1.3% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.3% 0
Wind Slimes 1.3% 0
Wind Umbra Tristan 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.1% -1.5
Wind Vanitas 1.3% 0
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orchestrated Seizure +1.00 1 0 0
Sharpen Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Gloamspire Mantle +1.00 1 0 0
Windwalker Boots +1.00 1 0 0
Assassin's Mantle -1.00 0 1 0
Grim Foreboding -1.00 0 1 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Curved Dagger -1.00 0 1 0
Final Stroke +1.00 1 0 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Revenant’s Scourge +1.00 1 0 0
Extortion Scheme +1.00 1 0 0
Exorcise Curses +1.00 1 0 0
Idle Thoughts -1.00 0 1 0
Gearstride Gloves -1.00 0 1 0
Mercenary's Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Slice and Dice -1.00 0 1 0
Imperial Spy +1.00 1 0 0
Shifting Mirage -1.00 0 1 0
Life Essence Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Tristan, Grim Stalker +1.00 1 0 0
Assassin's Ripper +1.00 1 0 0
Surveil the Winds -1.00 0 1 0
Shadowstrike -1.00 0 1 0
Exploit Vulnerability -1.00 0 1 0
Dusksoul Stone -1.00 0 1 0
Possessed Remnant +1.00 1 0 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester +1.00 1 0 0
Betraying Blade -1.00 0 1 0
Incapacitate +1.00 1 0 0
Mastermind Scheme +1.00 1 0 0
Gloamspire Headhunter -1.00 0 1 0
Corhazi Outlook +1.00 1 0 0
Sirocco Operative -1.00 0 1 0
Haunting Demise +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/5288/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike