Fire EruptingTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly
decks
2
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
42.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1187
· median 1187
· range 1137–1237
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1198
Q3 1383
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tristan | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
