← Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1385–1385
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1054
Q1 1171
Q3 1357
1464
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Water Neos | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
