← Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship

decks

6 (18.8% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

23 9-11-3

overall winrate

45.7%

ELO-adjusted winrate

47.1% avg ELO -1.1 per match

expected value

45.7% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

46.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1243 · median 1169 · range 1095–1464 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)

1054 Q1 1171 Q3 1357 1464

33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Water Ravishing Mill	12.5%	3	0-3-0	0.0%	28.6%	31.4%	-13.9
Fire Crux Mage	9.4%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Slimes	9.4%	4	1-1-2	50.0%	50.0%	49.2%	-0.5
Fire Crux Hybrid	6.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Neos	6.2%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	46.2%	-3.6
Wind Allies	6.2%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	58.1%	+6.0
Fire Aggro	3.1%	3	0-2-1	16.7%	35.7%	41.3%	-6.5
Fire Arcane	3.1%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	68.7%	+17.9
Fire Arisanna	3.1%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	64.9%	+14.3
Fire Luxem Assassin	3.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Allies	3.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Dawn of Ashes	3.1%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	46.2%	-3.6
Water Lorraine	3.1%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	40.0%	-16.0
Water Luxem Assassin	3.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Crux Lorraine	3.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Lorraine	3.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Slice & Dice	3.1%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	41.5%	-13.7

Decklists · 6 from this event

The 6 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Reprogram, Dungeon Guide, Veiling Breeze. Losers more often ran: Assassin's Mantle, Water Resonance Bauble, Fire Resonance Bauble.

↑ Played more by winners

Reprogram

Winning decks ran 2.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Dungeon Guide

Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.

Veiling Breeze

Winning decks ran 2.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.

Assassin's Ripper

Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.

Sadi, Blood Harvester

Winning decks ran 3.8 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.

Tristan, Shadowreaver

Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.

↓ Played more by losers