← Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship
Water NeosTier 2
at Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-5-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
46.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275
· median 1275
· range 1170–1381
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1054
Q1 1171
Q3 1357
1464
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Arisanna | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Neos decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
