← Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.6% | +13.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.3 |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Water Neos | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.9% | +16.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Awakened Frostguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guarded Dissipation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |