EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at TableCon Constructed Event.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 54.1% | 58.9% | 52.1% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 54.1% | 58.9% | 52.1% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 48.7% | 58.8% | 49.3% | 1633 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 15.8% | 18 | 61.1% | 52.7% | 55.6% | 51.5% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Slimes | 3 | 15.8% | 8 | 62.5% | 50.3% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 3 | 15.8% | 12 | 41.7% | 48.8% | 48.9% | 49.5% | 1288 | — |
| 7 | Water Allies | 2 | 10.5% | 8 | 50.0% | 51.5% | 47.7% | 50.6% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 10.5% | 9 | 33.3% | 46.2% | 47.3% | 48.7% | 1290 | — |
| 9 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 45.7% | 49.3% | 1320 | — |
| 10 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 45.7% | 49.3% | 1320 | — |
| 11 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 47.6% | 40.0% | 48.4% | 1255 | — |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 46.3% | 36.0% | 47.7% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 46.8% | 35.0% | 47.8% | 1164 | ↓ low |