Fire Crux HybridTier 2
at Michigan ALC Regionals
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.1%
avg ELO -10.1 per match
expected value
41.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1116
· median 1116
· range 1116–1116
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1082
Q1 1179
Q3 1350
1637
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Allies | 13.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
