Water AlliesTier 1
at Michigan ALC Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.2% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 73.9% | +15.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 43.0% | -4.0 |
| Rogue | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.1% | +14.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.6% | +3.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.7% | -9.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| assassin's ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |