Wind Umbra RangerTier 2
at Michigan ALC Regionals
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.5%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1350
· median 1350
· range 1350–1350
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1082
Q1 1179
Q3 1350
1637
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Water Allies | 13.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
