Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Michigan ALC Regionals
decks
3
(7.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
9-8-0
overall winrate
52.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1290
· median 1301
· range 1213–1356
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1082
Q1 1179
Q3 1350
1637
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
| Water Allies | 13.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.9% | -14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Rogue | 10.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.5% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
