Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at Michigan ALC Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 13.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.1% | -15.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Rogue | 10.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.4% | -14.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.3% | +15.1 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiery Duelist | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Force Load | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| TaserShot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tasershot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penetrator Round | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Rifleman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| spirit of fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Anathema's End | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Materialize Munitions | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lone Gunslinger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| False Step | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |