← Brisbane Regionals 6th July 2024
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Brisbane Regionals 6th July 2024.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 70.0% | 63.7% | 55.9% | 57.0% | 1232 | — |
| 2 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 55.9% | 54.2% | 1299 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 22.2% | 14 | 60.7% | 56.4% | 54.4% | 53.5% | 1302 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Slimes | 3 | 16.7% | 15 | 56.7% | 57.0% | 49.5% | 50.3% | 1281 | — |
| 6 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 46.2% | 46.2% | 1251 | — |
| 7 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.6% | 45.0% | 45.2% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 40.7% | 45.0% | 42.3% | 1285 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 39.3% | 45.0% | 47.1% | 1248 | — |
| 10 | Water Neos | 2 | 11.1% | 8 | 37.5% | 43.6% | 44.9% | 46.0% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Neos | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 10.0% | 31.3% | 40.7% | 42.0% | 1145 | ↓ low |