EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Agora Hobby Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Hybrid

59.4%

8.6% share · 16 matches

2.9% share · 6 matches

3rd

Water Luxem Assassin

57.4%

2.9% share · 5 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Erupting	1	2.9%	6	83.3%	72.0%	60.0%	61.1%	1271	—
2	Fire Crux Hybrid	3	8.6%	16	71.9%	60.6%	59.4%	56.2%	1389	↑ top
3	Water Luxem Assassin	1	2.9%	5	50.0%	43.1%	57.4%	53.1%	1322	—
4	Slimes	4	11.4%	21	52.4%	55.6%	57.3%	58.2%	1267	—
5	Water Ravishing Mill	1	2.9%	5	60.0%	59.4%	53.6%	54.5%	1324	↑ top
6	Fire Crux Mage	3	8.6%	11	68.2%	62.7%	51.9%	52.4%	1166	↓ low
7	Wind Shadowstrike	7	20.0%	18	44.4%	45.8%	50.9%	51.0%	1304	—
8	Fire Crux Merlin	1	2.9%	5	40.0%	48.7%	47.9%	50.0%	1358	↑ top
9	Water Allies	1	2.9%	2	50.0%	52.3%	45.0%	46.8%	1153	↓ low
10	Wind Allies	7	20.0%	25	38.0%	35.8%	44.2%	42.7%	1304	—
11	Fire Arcane	4	11.4%	12	33.3%	41.7%	41.0%	43.6%	1173	↓ low
12	Fire Aggro	1	2.9%	2	0.0%	36.9%	40.0%	44.1%	1392	↑ top
13	Wind Neos	1	2.9%	2	0.0%	37.8%	40.0%	42.7%	1041	↓ low