Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Brood en Spelen Regionals
decks
3
(10.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-6-1
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.3%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1403
· median 1436
· range 1252–1520
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1018
Q1 1189
Q3 1398
1520
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 17.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Allies | 17.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.7% | +14.7 |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -15.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 43.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Wind Beast | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
