Water Umbra RangerTier 2
at Brood en Spelen Regionals
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.2%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1170
· median 1170
· range 1170–1170
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1018
Q1 1189
Q3 1398
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 17.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 17.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
