← CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 43.3% | -3.1 |
| Water Allies | 14.1% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -5.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.2% | -4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -10.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Water Vanitas | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Arisanna | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curved Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Patient Rogue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |