← CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship

decks
10 (15.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55 32-17-6
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.6% avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
53.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1330 · median 1340 · range 1139–1457 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005 Q1 1152 Q3 1344 1736
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 10% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 14.1% 7 1-3-3 35.7% 40.9% 35.4% -7.3
Fire Aggro 10.9% 9 6-3-0 66.7% 61.5% 56.7% +3.1
Fire Umbra Ranger 7.8% 4 0-3-1 12.5% 31.2% 29.3% -13.3
Wind Allies 7.8% 7 5-2-0 71.4% 63.6% 62.7% +6.4
Fire Arcane 6.2% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.9% -6.1
Fire Erupting 6.2% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 56.5% +3.7
Fire Luxem Assassin 6.2% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 67.7% +13.2
Water Luxem Assassin 3.1% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 62.5% +9.3
Wind Crux Mage 3.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.4% +16.7
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.6
Fire Diana 1.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.2% +12.7
Fire Luxem Zander 1.6% 0
Fire Neos 1.6% 0
Fire Neos Tonoris 1.6% 0
Fire Tera Silvie 1.6% 0
Fire Umbra Diana 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.7% +12.3
Water Astra Cleric 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.9% +7.8
Water Crux Lorraine 1.6% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.6% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 1.6% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 45.2% -3.6
Water Vanitas 1.6% 0
Wind Arisanna 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.6% +15.3
Wind Lorraine 1.6% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 63.3% +9.9
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 3 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Purge in Flames -0.67 0 2 1
Devastating Blow +0.67 2 0 1
Flame-Rune Swordsman -0.67 0 2 0
Quicksilver Grail +0.67 2 0 1
Resolute Stand +0.33 1 0 2
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.33 1 0 0
Incarnate Majesty +0.33 1 0 2
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.33 1 0 2
Fast Cure +0.33 1 0 2
Spark Alight +0.33 1 0 2
Hasty Messenger +0.33 1 0 2
Scry the Skies +0.33 1 0 0
Bulwark Sword -0.33 0 1 2
Chalice of Blood +0.33 1 0 0
Morgan, Soul Guide -0.33 0 1 1
Safeguard Amulet +0.33 1 0 2
Clumsy Apprentice -0.33 0 1 0
Rending Flames -0.33 0 1 0
Incendiary Fractal -0.33 0 1 1
Vanish from Sight +0.33 1 0 1
Focused Flames -0.33 0 1 0
Tithe Proclamation +0.00 1 1 0
Exorcise Curses +0.00 1 1 1
Honorable Vanguard +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/577/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage