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Fire Crux MageTier 1
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 14.1% | 7 | 1-3-3 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 35.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 56.7% | +3.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 29.3% | -13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 62.7% | +6.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.5% | +3.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.7% | +13.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.5% | +9.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Diana | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Water Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.3% | +9.9 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 3 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purge in Flames | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |