← CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship
Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.9%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1638
· median 1638
· range 1638–1638
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1152
Q3 1344
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 14.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
