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Water AlliesTier 1
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 7 | 3-1-3 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 64.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +5.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.0% | +2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 34.0% | -9.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 35.5% | -7.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.5 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Drowned Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |