← CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship
Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 70.7% | +13.3 |
| Water Allies | 14.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.0% | -2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.8% | +4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.0% | -5.7 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.3 |
| Wind Arisanna | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Cursebreaker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| False Step | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lone Gunslinger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |