EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Paradox Store Championship .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Crux Lorraine | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 65.0% | 57.3% | 57.4% | 56.0% | 1370 | — |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 8.7% | 11 | 68.2% | 57.8% | 55.6% | 53.3% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Slimes | 3 | 13.0% | 18 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 55.0% | 53.1% | 1340 | — |
| 4 | Water Umbra Tristan | 1 | 4.3% | 7 | 71.4% | 66.0% | 53.3% | 54.0% | 1302 | — |
| 5 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 60.5% | 52.2% | 52.1% | 1341 | — |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 60.0% | 55.7% | 51.8% | 51.1% | 1340 | — |
| 7 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 39.2% | 50.0% | 46.3% | 1305 | — |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 8.7% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.2% | 48.3% | 49.7% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 47.5% | 47.3% | 1368 | — |
| 10 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 40.0% | 46.9% | 46.2% | 48.1% | 1288 | — |
| 11 | Fire Erupting | 3 | 13.0% | 14 | 35.7% | 45.2% | 44.1% | 47.1% | 1337 | — |
| 12 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.2% | 44.0% | 44.4% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 27.4% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 1253 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 33.9% | 40.0% | 43.3% | 1064 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | 1149 | ↓ low |