← Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.9% | -5.3 |
| Water Allies | 14.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 11.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Rogue | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |