← Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
Wind AlliesTier 2
at Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Water Allies | 14.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.5% | -7.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 11.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Neos | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Rogue | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |