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Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 14.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.1% | +9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Neos | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Rogue | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Exorcise Curses, Orb of Choking Fumes, Fire Resonance Bauble. Losers more often ran: Assassin's Ripper, Fast Cure, Viridian Protective Trinket.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Caliburn of Silencing | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thousand Refractions | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uther, Illustrious King | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 |