← Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
Water AlliesTier 2
at Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
decks
4
(14.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-9-1
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1447
· median 1414
· range 1270–1689
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1057
Q1 1177
Q3 1377
1689
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.9% | -9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.5% | +7.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -13.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.9% | +5.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
