← Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Grand Archive ALC Regionals @GGG
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
0-8-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
19.2%
avg ELO -14.8 per match
expected value
38.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1081
· median 1081
· range 1057–1105
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1057
Q1 1177
Q3 1377
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Water Allies | 14.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
