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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at RWT Collective - MRC Store Champs
decks
3
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
11-6-3
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.4%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
54.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1216
· median 1102
· range 1082–1465
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1082
Q1 1154
Q3 1425
1593
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 22.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 38.6% | -7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.1% | +7.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
