EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CMD Regional Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 7 | 21.2% | 30 | 66.7% | 57.8% | 56.4% | 53.0% | 1347 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 5 | 15.2% | 33 | 60.6% | 58.5% | 53.0% | 53.3% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Neos | 1 | 3.0% | 7 | 64.3% | 51.5% | 52.8% | 50.5% | 1322 | — |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 6.1% | 12 | 50.0% | 47.7% | 49.3% | 48.7% | 1289 | — |
| 5 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 50.8% | 48.7% | 48.5% | 1340 | — |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 5 | 15.2% | 24 | 45.8% | 50.9% | 47.9% | 49.5% | 1221 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Arcane | 3 | 9.1% | 18 | 41.7% | 46.7% | 47.6% | 49.4% | 1240 | — |
| 8 | Fire Erupting | 3 | 9.1% | 15 | 46.7% | 49.1% | 45.9% | 47.4% | 1311 | — |
| 9 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.1% | 45.2% | 49.7% | 1316 | — |
| 10 | Water Allies | 2 | 6.1% | 12 | 45.8% | 52.1% | 44.9% | 47.1% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Neos | 1 | 3.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 35.2% | 40.0% | 42.4% | 1090 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Vanitas | 1 | 3.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 26.5% | 40.0% | 38.9% | 1113 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 24.6% | 35.6% | 36.7% | 1219 | ↓ low |