← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 19.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 63.0% | +7.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 13.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.2% | +0.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 59.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Slimes | 2.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Water Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |