Water Ravishing MillTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 6 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Cheesy 85 cards · placed #1
• Deez 83 cards · placed #5
• XVTiamat 83 cards · placed #10
• ONI 85 cards · placed #25
• XMaidenrosex 85 cards · placed #38
• Goku 82 cards · placed #43

In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Song of Frost, Frostbind. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Tithe Proclamation, Fractal of Intrusion.

↑ Played more by winners

Viridian Protective Trinket

Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.

Song of Frost

Winning decks ran 2.4 copies on average, losing decks 1.2.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Frostbind

Winning decks ran 3.2 copies on average, losing decks 2.4.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.

Diffusive Block

Winning decks ran 3.6 copies on average, losing decks 2.6.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Vaporjet Shieldbearer

Winning decks ran 3.6 copies on average, losing decks 3.0.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.

Snow Fairy

Winning decks ran 1.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.

↓ Played more by losers

Resolute Stand

Losing decks ran 2.2 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.

Tithe Proclamation

Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.

Fractal of Intrusion

Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.6.

Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Savage Smash

Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.

Revitalizing Cleanse

Losing decks ran 2.6 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.

Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.

Hailstorm Guard

Losing decks ran 1.2 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.