← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
Fire SlimesTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 19.6% | 11 | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.2% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.8% | -0.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Beast | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Water Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vampiric Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Mending | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Capricious Lynx | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |