EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Texas MRC Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 3 | 8.1% | 10 | 80.0% | 60.7% | 64.3% | 58.7% | 1376 | — |
| 2 | Water Neos | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 58.3% | 46.4% | 58.7% | 54.8% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.1% | 53.8% | 52.0% | 1607 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 2 | 5.4% | 12 | 41.7% | 50.8% | 52.8% | 54.5% | 1266 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 75.0% | 67.1% | 52.5% | 53.3% | 1381 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 2 | 5.4% | 10 | 65.0% | 56.8% | 52.4% | 51.4% | 1428 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 10.8% | 20 | 55.0% | 52.8% | 50.2% | 50.1% | 1373 | — |
| 8 | Slimes | 9 | 24.3% | 38 | 48.7% | 49.5% | 50.1% | 50.4% | 1368 | — |
| 9 | Water Crux Lorraine | 2 | 5.4% | 11 | 50.0% | 49.1% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Ravishing Mill | 3 | 8.1% | 17 | 50.0% | 55.0% | 47.4% | 50.0% | 1274 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 5.4% | 7 | 35.7% | 40.6% | 46.8% | 45.7% | 1297 | — |
| 12 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 5.4% | 8 | 31.2% | 42.3% | 44.1% | 45.7% | 1273 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 8.1% | 18 | 47.2% | 46.1% | 44.1% | 44.0% | 1275 | — |
| 14 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 16.7% | 36.0% | 41.5% | 43.7% | 1258 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 10.0% | 33.3% | 40.5% | 43.2% | 1158 | ↓ low |