EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 80.0% | 64.0% | 57.7% | 56.9% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 45.1% | 54.8% | 47.5% | 1558 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.0% | 53.8% | 53.8% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 4 | 12.5% | 20 | 60.0% | 58.4% | 52.8% | 53.5% | 1377 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Allies | 7 | 21.9% | 30 | 60.0% | 54.0% | 51.8% | 49.4% | 1304 | — |
| 6 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.0% | 51.8% | 51.8% | 1275 | — |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 5 | 15.6% | 24 | 41.7% | 43.2% | 51.5% | 50.8% | 1290 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 5 | 15.6% | 23 | 58.7% | 59.0% | 50.7% | 52.3% | 1281 | — |
| 9 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 25.0% | 35.6% | 44.6% | 45.2% | 1063 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.8% | 43.9% | 44.4% | 1345 | — |
| 11 | Wind Beast | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 25.0% | 39.9% | 43.8% | 47.0% | 1086 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Tonoris | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.5% | 43.8% | 45.2% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 6.2% | 8 | 31.2% | 41.8% | 41.7% | 44.3% | 1130 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.9% | 36.9% | 39.8% | 1058 | ↓ low |