Fire AggroTier 2
at 松江貓 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.0%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1351
· median 1351
· range 1303–1399
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1251
Q3 1399
1543
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 22.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Allies | 12.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.3% | -2.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Wind Beast | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
