Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at 松江貓 店家冠軍賽
decks
4
(8.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
6-10-1
overall winrate
38.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304
· median 1262
· range 1224–1469
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1251
Q3 1399
1543
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 22.4% | 9 | 1-8-0 | 11.1% | 23.1% | 26.2% | -11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 56.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 12.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
