← 松江貓 店家冠軍賽

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at 松江貓 店家冠軍賽

decks
11 (22.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38 17-18-3
overall winrate
48.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2% avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
50.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269 · median 1277 · range 1148–1463 (11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043 Q1 1251 Q3 1399 1543
9% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 22.4% 10 4-4-2 50.0% 50.0% 50.9% +0.4
Wind Allies 12.2% 9 5-4-0 55.6% 53.8% 59.0% +4.2
Water Ravishing Mill 8.2% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 43.3% -4.3
Fire Crux Hybrid 6.1% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 48.4% -1.2
Fire Aggro 4.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.9% +17.4
Wind Beast 4.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.1% +14.5
Fire Arcane 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.6% -13.5
Fire Crux Mage 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.6% -19.8
Fire Slimes 2.0% 0
Fire Tera Silvie 2.0% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.3% +1.3
Water Astra Cleric 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.5% +15.2
Water Crux Mage 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.1% -4.7
Water Neos 2.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.7% -2.2
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.0% 0
Wind Slimes 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.1% -12.7
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Gloamspire Mantle -1.00 0 2 0
Sable Remnant -1.00 0 2 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 2 0 0
Assassin's Ripper +1.00 2 0 0
Blackmarket Broker +1.00 2 0 0
Cleansing Reunion -0.50 0 1 1
Reclaim +0.50 1 0 1
Veiling Breeze -0.50 0 1 1
Slice and Dice +0.50 1 0 1
Nullifying Lantern +0.50 1 0 0
Turbo Charge -0.50 0 1 1
Reprogram -0.50 0 1 1
Sadi, Blood Harvester -0.50 0 1 1
Tristan, Shadowreaver -0.50 0 1 1
Shadow's Claw +0.50 1 0 1
Zephyr -0.50 0 1 1
Poisoned Dagger -0.50 0 1 1
Innervate Agility -0.50 0 1 1
Resolute Stand +0.50 1 0 0
Scout the Land +0.50 1 0 0
Eternal Magistrate +0.00 1 1 0
Arrow Trap +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/6607/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike