Fire ArcaneTier 2
at IanTCG MRC Regional
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1445
· median 1445
· range 1445–1445
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1066
Q1 1182
Q3 1399
1520
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.3% | -10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
