Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at IanTCG MRC Regional
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
8-3-0
overall winrate
72.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
73.6%
avg ELO +10.3 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1239
· median 1239
· range 1215–1264
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1066
Q1 1182
Q3 1399
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.6% | -8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Water Overlord | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
