Fire Crux HybridTier 2
at IanTCG MRC Regional
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-4-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1221–1402
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1066
Q1 1182
Q3 1399
1520
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
