Water OverlordTier 2
at IanTCG MRC Regional
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.9%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1396
· median 1396
· range 1396–1396
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1066
Q1 1182
Q3 1399
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Overlord decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
