← Grand Library League S2 Finals
Fire Crux MageTier 3
at Grand Library League S2 Finals
decks
2
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-6-3
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1210
· median 1210
· range 1089–1331
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1184
Q3 1358
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
