← Grand Library League S2 Finals
Fire LorraineTier 2
at Grand Library League S2 Finals
decks
4
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
9-9-4
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1344
· median 1383
· range 1126–1482
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1184
Q3 1358
1694
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 48.0% | -1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.5% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 50.9% | +0.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
