← Grand Library League S2 Finals
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Grand Library League S2 Finals
decks
23
(19.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
107
37-49-21
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.5%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1256
· median 1224
· range 1043–1543
(23 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1184
Q3 1358
1694
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
35% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.3% | 27 | 6-16-5 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 47.1% | -1.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.2% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 11 | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -0.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.4% | 6 | 3-0-3 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 53.3% | +1.8 |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.4% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Beast | 0.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.8% | +0.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.3% | +0.9 |
Decklists · 23 from this event
The 23 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 16 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Turbo Charge, Eternal Magistrate, Veiling Breeze. Losers more often ran: Sharpen Blade, Reprogram, Slice and Dice.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Eternal Magistrate
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 4.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 7.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Cleansing Reunion
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 8.
Shadow Resonance
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 2.
Sharpen Blade
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Slice and Dice
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 9.
Assassin's Ripper
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 9.
Gearstride Gloves
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Imperial Spy
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 8.
Show all 67 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpen Blade | -0.38 | 2 | 8 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.31 | 7 | 2 | 4 | |
| Reprogram | -0.25 | 3 | 7 | 5 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.25 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.19 | 3 | 0 | 13 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.19 | 6 | 3 | 7 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.19 | 2 | 5 | 9 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.19 | 2 | 5 | 9 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 3 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | +0.12 | 8 | 6 | 1 | |
| Imperial Spy | -0.12 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.12 | 2 | 0 | 13 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 12 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 12 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.12 | 4 | 6 | 4 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 12 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.12 | 7 | 5 | 4 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.12 | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Wind | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 15 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 15 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.06 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 13 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 15 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 13 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 15 | |
| Zephyr | +0.06 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 13 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 5 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Mantle | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Curved Dagger | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Final Stroke | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shifting Mirage | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusksoul Stone | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 12 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slip Away | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Malignant Athame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |