← Regionals @ Hobby Lords Dunedin!
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Regionals @ Hobby Lords Dunedin!
decks
4
(16.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
9-3-5
overall winrate
67.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
56.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1407
· median 1401
· range 1226–1599
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1132
Q3 1368
1599
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 12.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.5% | +7.1 |
| Wind Cats | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.0% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.1% | +3.8 |
| Water Allies | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.8% | -11.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 33.6% | -15.8 |
| Wind Exia | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
